Extreme heat exposure & maternal-newborn outcomes

Implementation - Implémentation
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This community innovation has been accepted at the 2026 DHIS2 Annual Conference as a digital poster.


Extreme heat exposure & maternal-newborn outcomes

ABSTRACT Background: Rising temperatures threaten maternal and newborn health, particularly in sub Saharan Africa where healthcare capacity remains limited. Senegal, located in the Sahel region, experiences extreme heat stress, with maximum Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCImax) values exceeding 40°C. Understanding heat related health risks is essential for climate adaptation planning. Objectives: We quantified associations between long term heat exposure and maternal newborn health outcomes across 79 health districts from 2019 to 2023, adjusting for healthcare access and air pollution. Methods: We analyzed 1,931,285 live births, 7,982 stillbirths, 9,641 neonatal deaths, 438 maternal deaths, and 96,564 low birth weight cases. Mean annual UTCImax was calculated from daily ERA5 HEAT data and categorized into tertiles (low, medium, high). PM2.5 exposure was assessed using monthly satellite based estimates. We applied Bayesian hierarchical spatial models with conditional autoregressive priors to estimate relative risks (RR) across heat tertiles, adjusting for six healthcare indicators. Multiple testing was corrected using the Benjamini Hochberg false discovery rate (FDR) procedure. Results: High heat exposure (mean UTCImax 38.1 40.4°C) was associated with increased low birth weight (RR=1.37, 95%CI: 1.15 1.66, q=0.011) and maternal mortality (RR=2.31, 95%CI: 1.27 4.21, q=0.023). Medium heat exposure showed elevated low birth weight risk (RR=1.27, 95%CI: 1.07 1.50, q=0.023). Stillbirth risk was moderately elevated in high heat areas (RR=1.33, 95%CI: 1.01 1.76, q=0.084), achieving significance at the liberal α=0.10 FDR threshold. Heat and PM2.5 were spatially independent (r=0.041, p=0.747), and heat effects persisted after PM2.5 adjustment. Conclusions: Extreme heat exposure is associated with substantial maternal and newborn health risks in Senegal, independent of air pollution. Climate adaptation strategies must prioritize maternal child health services in high heat

Primary Author: Moustapha Tall


Keywords:
extreme heat; maternal mortality; neonatal mortality; stillbirth; low birth weight; DHIS2; UTCI; Bayesian spatial analysis; sub-Saharan Africa; climate change; air pollution

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Great work, are there plans to extend this to other Sahel countries?

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I recently wrote a paper on the impact of extreme health on MNCH outcomes, it would be great to connect! I’d like to learn more about your collection methods and additional details on what you found. Thanks!

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This is great! It would be great if you’d like to share more about the paper in Research - Recherches or in Implementation - Implémentation :raising_hands:

Thanks!